NBA: Free agency winners & losers

In the great words of Talladega Nights' Ricky Bobby “If you ain’t first, you're last." It may ring true in NASCAR, and perhaps most areas of life really, but in terms of free agency winning and losing is a bit more nuanced. On one hand, the reigning champion LA Lakers may have won back-to-back titles on paper and on the other hand, we have the Detroit Pistons who have the same sense of direction akin to that of a 3-year old. In between that gigantic chasm are teams like the Atlanta Hawks and others, who may have put together a decent ball club to reach the playoffs. With training camp set to begin soon and opening night within a month, free agency went from a nice jog to a full on sprint. Let’s look at 2020’s frenzied free agency so far.

Winners: The Battle for LA: Make no mistake about the odds, the Lakers are the title favorites heading into next season after adding Dennis Schröder, Marc Gasol, Wesley Matthews, and they even managed to snag current Sixth Man of the Year: Montrezl Harrell from the Clippers before Kawhi Leonard could form a smile. Lakers front office managed to fill those vacancies after losing Danny Green (traded to 76ers), JaVale McGee (traded to Cavaliers), Rajon Rondo (signed with Hawks) and Dwight Howard (signed with 76ers), which are upgrades at every position. With the foundation of LeBron James and AD, all they need are three other capable players on the floor and you’re basically guaranteed a trip to the Finals. Who wouldn’t sign up and take a possible pay cut, compared to what they could possibly get elsewhere, in hopes of winning a championship?

Exactly. After blowing a historic and equally embarrassing 3-1 lead to the Nuggets in the bubble, the “little brothers of LA” are hoping to redeem themselves as title favorites coming into the season. Chemistry was never quite where it should’ve been which offset the potential for a great offense and a staunch defense. Basically, the Clips got by on talent and it showed every time they lost a big lead. The first step in righting their wrongs was firing Doc Rivers and promoting Tyronn Lue to head coach. Secondly, a 3-team trade sent Landry Shamet to Brooklyn for Detroit's Luke Kennard. Thirdly, Serge Ibaka signed a two-year, $18M contract to help bolster the frontcourt and offer some much needed offensive versatility. One would imagine that neither the Clippers nor the Lakers are done filling out their rosters, as the defending champions are looking for another center and the Clippers are trying to trade Lou Williams. There may be a battle for LA next year but no one said the battle would be equal.

Winners: Portland Trail Blazers: It’s pretty much the Lakers and everyone else at this point but that’s actually a high point for Portland considering they’ve been on this Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum and Terry Stotts experiment for several seasons now with nothing tangible to show for their success (besides a trip to the 2019 WCF). Every season something amazing happens with the Blazers like: Dame’s insane buzzer beater over Paul George, McCollum’s fantastic game seven against Denver, a run to reach the playoffs inside the bubble, and Carmelo’s comeback season. Portland definitely gives its fans a reason to cheer for them every year which is why it's also just as upsetting that they can't seem to get over the proverbial hill that is the west.

The Trail Blazers didn’t get super fancy with their moves but they made just enough of the right moves to separate themselves from the pack as a potential top team in the conference. Carmelo and Rodney Hood both resigned, they traded for Houston's 3&D specialist Robert Covington, and brought Enes Kanter (who saw his best statistical output in Portland) back in the mix. The Blazers also added some depth, picking up Derrick Jones Jr. and Harry Giles III. The handful of moves Portland made last month easily makes them a threat alongside their core of Lillard, McCollum and Jusuf Nurkić. Not bad.

Winners: Atlanta Hawks: The jury is still out on Atlanta’s free agency and how the players will mesh together during the season but on paper it's not so bad. The Hawks were able to land significant free agents to a team that's otherwise an afterthought for free agents. I’m not sure why, Atlanta is great city but if I had to guess it may have something to do with the fan base and structure from an organizational standpoint. I mean they've changed their jerseys every season for the last 10 years. With an abundant cap space to work with, Atlanta signed Rajon Rondo (2-year, $15M) to take some of the offensive load off of Trae Young, Kris Dunn (2-year, $10M) to help defensively, efficient wing scorer Danilo Gallinari (3-year, $61.5M), and finally secured the highly coveted restricted free agent in Bogdan Bogdanovic (4-year, $72M) from Sacramento.

There are several question marks in regards to the current roster construction since there aren’t enough minutes to go around. Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter are way too young to give up on right now, John Collins is due for an extension and is reportedly looking for the rookie max (which makes you wonder about the Gallinari signing) and drafting Onyeka Okongwu makes it seem like Collins is expendable. Although there are many questions, I imagine the front office wants to show Young that they're committed to filling the roster with talent to contribute to a winning culture. Good thing for Atlanta is they’re in the east so the bar isn't nearly as high.

Losers: Danny Ainge, Indiana and Charlotte: Danny Ainge is an exceptional GM but he seems to get in his own way sometimes. Having no inside connections to any team and purely speculating, he seems to be too smart for his own good, sometimes. It's the moves that Ainge doesn’t make that makes you wonder what exactly is he doing? Getting out of Hayward’s absurd contract was one thing but to lose him for pretty much nothing is another. There was a proposed trade between Indiana and Boston which would’ve sent Myles Turner and Doug McDermott to Boston for Hayward via sign-and-trade. Ainge didn’t budge and wanted either Victor Oladipo or TJ Warren alongside Turner to make the trade.

Indiana said “nah” so it never really got off the ground. In the meantime, while front offices were figuring out who they really wanted, Hayward signed an insane 4-year, $120M deal with the Hornets. I mean good for Charlotte, right? The Hornets aren't an attractive free agent market and they just drafted LaMelo Ball third overall so they had to pay someone to keep it exciting for their fan base... but damn MJ. It's a loss but I guess it’s not a bad loss. It’s like winning a portion of the lotto because you were one number off from winning the entire prize. Sure you get paid, but that one missing number will always haunt you.

Chances are Boston can still turn Hayward’s situation into a sign-and-trade which would net them a valuable trade exception to use next year and Charlotte could somehow get away from Nic Batum’s $27M contract in hopes of having to avoid waiving and stretching his contract over the next three years. Indiana loses here because they’re stuck in NBA purgatory, good enough to make the playoffs but not bad enough to land a franchise altering draft pick. It’s obvious Turner needs a change of scenery and Boston would’ve been perfect for his particular skillset, defending the paint, blocking shots and hitting a reasonable three. As for the Celtics, if Ainge can turn this thing around and get the trade exception he can add another W to his column.

Losers: Detroit Pistons: The fact that newcomer GM Troy Weaver is making moves in Detroit at all is a win in itself but every move isn’t necessarily a good one. Taking Killian Hayes with the seventh overall pick might be the only bright spot as the rest of his moves have been head scratchers. For starters, Detroit seems hellbent on getting as many similar bigs as they can. Jahlil Okafor, Mason Plumlee, Isiah Stewart (16th overall pick), Dwayne Dedmon, and Tony Bradley (recently traded) all occupy the same space on the floor. Detroit also failed to retain free agent Christian Wood, who has more upside than the aforementioned bigs because of his shooting and defensive potential. During the final 13 games of the season, Wood put up 23 points and 10 rebounds on a depleted roster when almost no plays were called for him. It’s hard to let go a player of that caliber without getting an immediate return when Detroit is searching for an identity.

Oft-injured Blake Griffin is still on the roster but according to a few reports, he will either be signed-and-traded to Denver for Jerami Grant (3-year, $60M) and Plumlee since the contracts match up or he could end up being dealt to Washington for John Wall. But signing Wood and dealing Griffin should've been the first priority after the draft. Also there's a lack of guards on this roster. Derrick Rose could easily be moved for younger talent but he's being held hostage to do what? He deserves to be on a contender. Josh Jackson is returning home after a stint in the G-League averaging 20.3 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists. He can possibly work as a point forward with promise on defense. Signing Jackson is a win-win since he's on a friendly contract and will be able to show if he's a reliable NBA player this year. Weaver’s ability to make drastic moves Is a good sign but Detroit’s current roster may be one of the worst in the whole league.

Losers: Milwaukee Bucks: There’s a significant chance two-time reigning MVP and DPOY Giannis Antetokounmpo may not sign the super-max contract extension worth $228M over five years. A sign-and-trade with Sacramento for Bogdanović in exchange for Ersan Ilyasova, Donte DeVincenzo and DJ Wilson was thrown into jeopardy when it was discovered that Bogdanović never agreed to be traded. Milwaukee wanted to pair newcomer Jrue Holiday with Bogdan to show Giannis that the front office is committed to getting better after it’s second straight failure to reach the Finals. However, Giannis is part to blame due to his lack of reliable shooting outside the paint. Defenses can load up in the paint, preventing the drive and forcing the ball out his hands.

So the blame is mutual but that won’t stop Antetokounmpo from looking for greener pastures elsewhere. Truth be told, trading for Bogdan (albeit a worthy addition) would've depleted Milwaukee of it’s depth that's already thin after losing Eric Bledsoe, George Hill and three first round picks for Holiday. Don’t get me wrong, Holiday is a phenomenal player but not worth leveraging your future in the event Giannis doesn’t resign. Also keeping Malcolm Brogdon instead of extending Bledsoe last year, which very well could’ve been a building block in pushing Giannis out the door, would’ve netted similar results. If Giannis doesn’t sign the extension by the mid-December deadline, he will be the most coveted free agent in his class with suitors from Dallas, Golden State, Miami, Toronto, and someone will claim the Knicks have a chance.

Photo Credit: Celtics Blog.