NBA: Regular season restart projections
Check out our roster breakdowns, playoff odds, and simulation results for all 22 teams in the bubble!
Milwaukee Bucks (53-12, #1 in the East): The Bucks have the best record in the league at 53-12 they could still get to the 60-win plateau for the second year in a row. Also for the second time in as many years, Giannis Antetokounmpo (29.6 points, 13.7 rebounds) is likely going to win the league MVP. Can the Bucks get over the edge, though, and win the title? Our simulator thinks yes, as Milwaukee defeated the Clippers in six games in the Finals.
Finishing Five:
PG: Eric Bledsoe
SG: Kyle Korver
SF: Khris Middleton
PF: Giannis Antetokounmpo
C: Brook Lopez
Simulator: NBA champions over Clippers
Indiana Pacers (39-26, #5 in the East): The Pacers haven't had Victor Oladipo (13.8 points, 3.2 rebounds) for most of the season but it seems that he has decided to opt-in for the regular season, and that means they should be able to clinch a top-six spot in the Eastern Conference. Right now, the Pacers sit at fifth place with a 39-26 record. If the seeding remains the same, Indiana will play the Miami Heat in the first round.
Finishing Five:
PG: Malcolm Brogdon
SG: Victor Oladipo
SF: T.J. Warren
PF: Doug McDermott (Domantas Sabonis out 4-6 weeks)
C: Myles Turner
Simulator: First round loss to Heat
Toronto Raptors (46-18, #2 in the East): The Raptors might not be as good as they were a year ago, but Toronto has proven they can win with any number of lineups and that will be key going forward. Nick Nurse's team has so much depth and experience that he can pretty much just plug-and-play, especially when the rotations shrink. With Kyle Lowry and Pascal Siakam (23.6 points, 7.5 rebounds per game), the Raptors could certainly reach another Finals.
Finishing Five:
PG: Kyle Lowry
SG: Fred VanVleet
SF: O.G. Anunoby
PF: Pascal Siakam
C: Marc Gasol
Simulator: Conference finals loss to Bucks
Boston Celtics (43-21, #3 in the East): The Celtics come into the bubble with a 43-21 record, which is enough for third place in the Eastern Conference. Jayson Tatum (23.6 points, 7.1 rebounds per game) was playing at an MVP level since the All-Star break, and he'll look to continue that with Kemba Walker back in the lineup. In our simulation, the Celtics reached the the second round before being knocked out by the Toronto Raptors.
Finishing Five:
PG: Kemba Walker
SG: Jaylen Brown
SF: Jayson Tatum
PF: Gordon Hayward
C: Daniel Theis
Simulator: Second round loss to Raptors
Philadelphia 76ers (39-26, #6 in the East): The 76ers remind me a lot of Houston in that they have underperformed for a good chunk of the season, but they still have the talent to make a run in the playoffs. Joel Embiid (23.4 points, 11.8 rebounds per game) is arguably the most skilled big man in the bubble, and Ben Simmons' hand is healed, so Philadelphia should have what it takes to at least reach the postseason as they currently sit at 39-26.
Finishing Five:
PG: Shake Milton
SG: Josh Richardson
SF: Tobias Harris
PF: Ben Simmons
C: Joel Embiid
Simulator: Second round loss to Celtics
Brooklyn Nets (30-34, #7 in the East): The Nets were put into a tough situation when Wilson Chandler, Nic Claxton, Spencer Dinwiddie, DeAndre Jordan, Kyrie Irving, and Taurean Prince were all unable for the resumption of the season. But I guess you could say they made the best of a bad situation as they signed talented veteran Jamal Crawford. Caris LeVert (17.7 points, 4.1 rebounds per game) will try to lead the Nets to the postseason.
Finishing Five:
PG: Tyler Johnson (Kyrie Irving out for season)
SG: Jamal Crawford (Spencer Dinwiddie out for season)
SF: Joe Harris
PF: Caris LeVert
C: Jarrett Allen (DeAndre Jordan out for season)
Simulator: First round loss to Raptors
Miami Heat (41-24, #4 in the East): The Heat have been one of the pleasant surprises during the regular season and they will have a good chance to get to the second round. Right now, Miami sits at 41-24, which is good enough for fourth in the Eastern Conference, and they'd play the Pacers if the postseason began today. Miami has multiple playmakers in Jimmy Butler (20.2 points, 6.6 rebounds per game), Bam Adebayo, and Tyler Herro.
Finishing Five:
PG: Goran Dragic
SG: Duncan Robinson
SF: Jimmy Butler
PF: Kelly Olynyk
C: Bam Adebayo
Simulator: Second round loss to Bucks
Orlando Magic (30-35, #8 in the East): The Magic are the #8 seed in the Eastern Conference with a 30-35 record, but it's very possible they could catch the Nets, who are just one game up. The lesser of the two teams will have to face the top seeded Bucks in the first round, so both will try to avoid that. I think with Brooklyn being so depleted and Nikola Vučević (19.5 points, 11.0 rebounds per game) playing so well, Orlando will clinch the #7 seed.
Finishing Five:
PG: Markelle Fultz
SG: Evan Fournier
SF: Aaron Gordon
PF: Jonathan Isaac
C: Nikola Vučević
Simulator: First round loss to Bucks
Washington Wizards (24-40, #9 in the East): The Wizards are just one game back of the Magic in the standings but we give them just a 5% chance to make the postseason after it was announced they would be without their leading scorers Bradley Beal (30.5 points, 6.1 assists per game) and Davis Bertans. Washington's offense will likely run through rookie Rui Hachimura and Thomas Bryant, which could help their progression in the long run.
Finishing Five:
PG: Shabazz Napier
SG: Jordan McRae (Bradley Beal out for season)
SF: Troy Brown Jr. (Davis Bertans out for season)
PF: Rui Hachimura
C: Thomas Bryant
Simulator: Miss playoffs (9th seed)
Los Angeles Lakers (49-14, #1 in the West): The Lakers have the best record in the Western Conference with a 49-14 record and they are pretty much a lock for the conference finals. I don't see anyone challenging them besides the Bucks or Clippers if LeBron James (25.7 points, 10.6 assists per game) and Anthony Davis continue to play they way they have been. The Lakers signed both Dion Waiters and J.R. Smith to replace Avery Bradley.
Finishing Five:
PG: LeBron James
SG: Danny Green (Avery Bradley out for season)
SF: Kyle Kuzma
PF: Anthony Davis
C: Dwight Howard
Simulator: Conference finals loss to Clippers
Los Angeles Clippers (44-20, #2 in the West): The Clippers, along with the Bucks and Lakers, are considered favorites to win the title heading into the bubble. With Kawhi Leonard (26.9 points, 7.3 rebounds per game) and Paul George leading the way, Los Angeles has a realistic chance of ending their championship drought. However, in our playoff simulation, Doc Rivers' team fell to the Bucks in the Finals in six games.
Finishing Five:
PG: Patrick Beverley
SG: Landry Shamet (Lou Williams out 7-10 days)
SF: Paul George
PF: Kawhi Leonard
C: Montrezl Harrell
Simulator: NBA Finals loss to Bucks
Sacramento Kings (28-36, #11 in the West): The Kings are tied with the Pelicans and Trail Blazers with eight games left in the regular season, which means it's possible for them to sneak their way into the postseason. That's going to be hard to accomplish, though, without starting forward Marvin Bagley III, who is out for the year with a right foot sprain. Watch for DeAaron Fox (20.4 points, 6.8 assists per game) and Buddy Hield to be really aggressive on offense.
Finishing Five:
PG: DeAaron Fox
SG: Buddy Hield
SF: Harrison Barnes
PF: Nemanja Bjelica (Marvin Bagley III out for season)
C: Harry Giles
Simulator: Miss playoffs (13th seed)
Phoenix Suns (26-39, #13 in the West): The Suns are the lowest seeded team among the 22 teams Invited to Orlando, and we give them the second worst chance (7%) to make the playoffs, just ahead of the Washington Wizards. Devin Booker (26.1 points, 6.6 assists per game) is an elite scorer, though, and Phoenix should be able to compete with the likes of the Wizards, Mavericks, Pacers, and Heat during the rest of the regular season.
Finishing Five:
PG: Ricky Rubio
SG: Devin Booker
SF: Mikal Bridges (Kelly Oubre out 3-5 weeks)
PF: Dario Šarić
C: DeAndre Ayton
Simulator: Miss playoffs (12th seed)
Denver Nuggets (43-22, #3 in the West): The Nuggets currently have a 43-22 record, which puts them at third place in the Western Conference, and they'll look to reach the second round (and further) for the second consecutive year. Mike Malone's team is led by Nikola Jokić (20.2 points, 10.2 rebounds per game) and Jamal Murray, who should be healthy again. Denver was upset by the Houston Rockets in six games in our postseason simulation.
Finishing Five:
PG: Jamal Murray
SG: Michael Porter Jr. (Gary Harris out 4-6 weeks)
SF: Jerami Grant
PF: Paul Millsap
C: Nikola Jokić
Simulator: First round loss to Rockets
Utah Jazz (41-23, #4 in the West): The Jazz were one of the hottest teams in the league in the weeks leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic shutdown, but a lot has changed since then. According to ESPN, star guard Donovan Mitchell (24.2 points, 4.2 assists per game) was frustrated with Rudy Gobert in March but the relationship has improved recently. But even more impactful than that, Bojan Bogdanovic is lost for the year which ends Utah's slim title hopes.
Finishing Five:
PG: Mike Conley Jr.
SG: Donovan Mitchell
SF: Joe Ingles (Bojan Bogdanovic out for season)
PF: Royce O'Neal
C: Rudy Gobert
Simulator: First round loss to Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder (41-24, #5 in the West): The Thunder, similarly to the Heat, have been resurrected this year behind a veteran star getting a fresh start. In this case, it's Chris Paul (17.7 points, 6.8 assists per game), who returned to an All-Star level this season. Along with Steven Adams and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it's possible Oklahoma City could pull off an upset or two. In our simulation, OKC lost to the Lakers in the second round.
Finishing Five:
PG: Chris Paul
SG: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
SF: Danilo Gallinari
PF: Nerlens Noel
C: Steven Adams
Simulator: Second round loss to Lakers
Portland Trail Blazers (29-37, #9 in the West): The Trail Blazers have been one of the most disappointing teams in the NBA this year as they are in ninth place in the Western Conference with a 29-37 record, which is 3.5 games back of the Grizzlies and tied with the Pelicans and Sacramento Kings. Damian Lillard (28.9 points, 7.8 assists per game) will try to lead his team to the playoffs for the seventh straight season but we give them just a 48% chance to do so.
Finishing Five:
PG: Damian Lillard
SG: C.J. McCollum
SF: Carmelo Anthony (Trevor Ariza out for season)
PF: Zach Collins
C: Jusuf Nurkic
Simulator: Miss playoffs (9th seed)
Houston Rockets (40-24, #6 in the West): The Rockets are three spots below the Nuggets in the standings, but are just two games back in the loss column with a 40-24 record. With eight games to go, there could be a lot of movement in the standings and Houston will look to move up behind James Harden (34.4 points, 7.4 assists per game) and Russell Westbrook. In our simulation, Houston lost to the Clippers in seven games in the second round.
Finishing Five:
PG: Russell Westbrook
SG: James Harden
SF: Danuel House Jr. (Eric Gordon out 2-3 weeks)
PF: Robert Covington
C: P.J. Tucker
Simulator: Second round loss to Clippers
Dallas Mavericks (40-27, #7 in the West): The Mavericks currently sit at the 7th spot in the Western Conference but with a 40-27 record, Dallas has proven they can compete with just about anyone. Luka Dončić (28.7 points, 8.7 assists per game) should finish in the top-five of the MVP race, and Kristaps Porzingis makes this team dangerous (if they can avoid the Clippers). In our simulation, they were eliminated in the first round in five games.
Finishing Five:
PG: Luka Dončić
SG: Tim Hardaway Jr.
SF: Dorian Finney-Smith
PF: Kristaps Porzingis
C: Dwight Powell
Simulator: First round loss to Clippers
Memphis Grizzlies (32-33, #8 in the West): The Grizzlies are definitely one of the many teams to keep an eye on in the bubble because the team is battling for the final playoff spot with the Portland Trail Blazers, while Ja Morant (17.6 points, 6.9 assists per game) headlines a tight race for Rookie of the Year. In our simulation, the Grizzlies were eliminated by the Lakers in the opening round in five games. We give Memphis a 66% chance to make the playoffs.
Finishing Five:
PG: Ja Morant
SG: Dillon Brooks
SF: Brandon Clarke (Justise Winslow out for season)
PF: Jaren Jackson Jr.
C: Jonas Valančiūnas
Simulator: First round loss to Lakers
New Orleans Pelicans (28-36, #10 in the West): The Pelicans, along with the Grizzlies and Trail Blazers, are seemingly in a three-team race for the last spot in the west. New Orleans has the easiest schedule among the three which brings their playoff odds up to 49%, just slightly ahead of Portland but behind Memphis. Even if they don't make the postseason, though, it'll still be nice to see Zion Williamson (23.6 points, 6.8 rebounds per game) back on the floor.
Finishing Five:
PG: Lonzo Ball
SG: Jrue Holiday
SF: Brandon Ingram
PF: Zion Williamson
C: Derrick Favors
Simulator: Miss playoffs (10th seed)
San Antonio Spurs (27-36, #12 in the West): The Spurs are only four games back of the Grizzlies but we give them just a 13% chance to reach the postseason. Which means for the first time in 22 years, Gregg Popovich and the Spurs won't be in the playoffs. Maybe if San Antonio had LaMarcus Aldridge for the restart, they would have an outside shot, but DeMar DeRozan (22.2 points, 5.6 assists per game) will have to take on far too much of the scoring load.
Finishing Five:
PG: Derrick White
SG: Bryn Forbes
SF: DeMar DeRozan
PF: Rudy Gay (LaMarcus Aldridge out for season)
C: Jakob Poeltl
Simulator: Miss playoffs (11th seed)
Chance to make playoffs:
Bucks: 100%
Celtics: 100%
Clippers: 100%
Lakers: 100%
Nuggets: 100%
Raptors: 100%
Rockets: 100%
Heat: 100%
Jazz: 100%
Mavericks: 100%
Pacers: 100%
Thunder: 100%
76ers: 100%
Magic: 77%
Nets: 68%
Grizzlies: 66%
Pelicans: 49%
Trail Blazers: 48%
Kings: 18%
Spurs: 13%
Suns: 7%
Wizards: 5%
Eastern Conference matchups:
Western Conference matchups:
Award projections:
MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
COY: Nick Nurse (Raptors)
DPOY: Giannis Antetokounmpo (Bucks)
MI: Bam Adebayo (Heat)
ROY: Ja Morant (Grizzlies)
6TH: Montrezl Harrell (Clippers)
Photo Credit: LA Daily News.
