Mar 15, 20186 min read

CBB: Who's Going to the Final Four?

1. What four teams will be in San Antonio for the coveted Final Four? There is only one team that appeared in all five of our Final Four projections, and that's Villanova (100 Percent). The Wildcats, who are 30-4, and Big East Tournament champions, are looking like the title favorite at this point, in large part because of Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges and should get through the East region with relative ease. The South region is a little more complicated, though, as the four seed Arizona (60 Percent) has the best chance to reach the national semifinals. Two other teams, Virginia (20 Percent) and Kentucky (20 Percent), split the remaining chances evenly. In the Midwest region, there's a lot of chalk with the top three seeds earning all of our selections. In order, we have Kansas (60 Percent), Duke (20 Percent), and Michigan State (20 Percent). The West was the most difficult to predict, but it's also very top heavy. However, there wasn't a distinguished winner because both Michigan (40 Percent) and Xavier (40 Percent) earned the same amount of votes. North Carolina (20 Percent) is next in line. If it were up to us, we'd have Villanova, Arizona, Kansas, and Xavier.

2. What teams that can reach the Final Four, who are not 1-3 seeds? (1) Arizona dominated the Pac-12 even though it is not as strong as recent years, they still did an amazing job doing what they were supposed to do, and showed how powerful they can be in the Pac-12 Tournament. The Wildcats are led by a Player of the Year candidate and future No. 1 NBA Draft pick, Deandre Ayton, and they could be poised to go all the way, as a No. 4 seed. (2) Kentucky has a very young core, the youngest John Calipari ever coached, and they surprised a lot of people and won the SEC title, and now they have some momentum. The Wildcats are ready for any challenge, but they might meet Arizona in the Second Round. (3) West Virginia is a No. 5 seed, but their full court pressing defense, led by star senior guard Jevon Carter, can bother a lot of guards and create turnovers. The saying "Defense wins championships" might reign true. (4) Ohio State can breathe now that they won't have to play Penn State again, losing three times. Regardless of their late season struggles, the Buckeyes have a very talented team and Keita Bates-Diop is going to be tough to match up with.

3. Who are a couple of low profile players that you think have the talent to carry their team to a deep tournament run? Kevin Knox (Kentucky) is a very talented freshman who is leading Kentucky in scoring and helped them on their run to win the SEC Tournament. He could be a future lottery pick and looks poised to help the team go on another run in the Big Dance. Knox is putting up 15.6 points and 5.4 rebounds per outing. E.C. Matthews (Rhode Island) is a phenomenal guard who had a knee injury that held him back, but has continued to be a big leader on the No. 7 Rhode Island team, who could be a sleeper team in the tournament. If so, it'll be in large part because of Matthews. They open the tournament against Trae Young and Oklahoma. Matthews is averaging 13.1 points and 4.0 rebounds per game. Gary Clark (Cincinnati) is a senior forward for No. 2 Cincinnati, which is a team of balance scoring and strong defense. He helps anchor that defense and is strong, which will help in the tournament when the Bearcats' shots aren't falling, similar to their most recent game against Houston.

4. What is the toughest (and easiest) region in the bracket? The Midwest region. It includes Kansas, Duke, and Michigan State as the top three seeds, which will not give an easy road to the Final Four for any team in the region. Besides the top three seeds, the region also includes potential sleepers, including Auburn, Rhode Island, and Seton Hall. According to Forbes, three teams from the Midwest have a realistic chance of winning the national title, the top three seeds, as they all appear in the top-10 favorites to win it all. Duke and Michigan State can meet in the Sweet Sixteen, and the Blue Devils won the only regular season game between the two storied programs in the Champions Classic. The easiest region in my opinion is definitely the West region. Even with the solid top teams like Xavier, North Carolina, and Michigan, those teams have been inconsistent at times during the season. Besides Houston, who ended the season on a good note, the rest of the field seems to be filled with teams that can’t separate themselves as a clear path to the Final Four. Out of that group, Forbes has Michigan as the mostly likely survivor.

5. What are the chances that Virginia, Purdue, Xavier, or NC State finally break through and make it to the their first Final Four this century? Virginia has the potential to finally break through and get to their first Final Four this century. They will most likely have to get through Arizona or Kentucky and Cincinnati to reach that destination. If they can continue their great defensive play and execute on offense, they can get there, behind the likes of Ty Jerome and Kyle Guy. NC State has not played up to par, despite beating both Duke and North Carolina this season, and I see them struggling in their first game against sleeper Seton Hall. With Purdue and Xavier, both top tier teams, their inconsistent play worries me. The Musketeers have North Carolina, Michigan, Gonzaga, and Ohio State in their bracket, while Purdue may meet Villanova, Texas Tech, and/or West Virginia. Both teams defensive inconsistency gives them a tough chance to make it to the Final Four, and I don't think either of them will. The most likely of the bunch to end their lengthy streak is Virginia because of their stout defense, experienced frontcourt, and lack of turnovers.

Sweet Sixteen Rankings:

1. Virginia (31-2, +0, 100 Pts)

2. Villanova (27-4, +0, 96 Pts)

3. Kansas (27-7, +7, 91 Pts)

4. Xavier (28-5, +0, 89 Pts)

5. Duke (26-7, +1, 81 Pts)

6. North Carolina (25-10, +9, 79 Pts)

7. Cincinnati (30-4, +1, 77 Pts)

8. Purdue (28-6, +1, 75 Pts)

9. Michigan State (29-4, -6, 67 Pts)

10. Michigan (28-7, -5, 65 Pts)

11. Arizona (27-7, +1, 57 Pts)

12. Texas Tech (24-9, +4, 52 Pts)

13. Wichita State (25-7, -2, 50 Pts)

14. Tennessee (25-8, -1, 48 Pts)

15. Gonzaga (30-4, -8, 45 Pts)

16. Auburn (25-7, -2, 20 Pts)

Player of the Year: DeAndre Ayton (100 Points) is starting to separate himself among the other candidates, and that was no more apparent than in his three games in the Pac-12 Tournament. In said games, two of which were against UCLA and USC, he dropped 74 points including surpassing the 30-point plateau twice, including going for 32 points in the title game against the Trojans. Jalen Brunson (93 Pts) has had a fantastic year in his junior campaign for the Wildcats, but it's not likely going to end with a Player of the Year award. I'm sure Brunson would rather be a national champion, which Villanova can still do. Not to mention that he's already been given the Big East Player of the Year. Marvin Bagley III (92 Points) is the third highest rated player in the country and has a chance to prove he's worth consideration to be the top pick in the Draft. After those three players, there is a pretty significant drop off until Miles Bridges (82 Points) out of Michigan State appears. He is averaging 16.9 points and 6.9 rebounds per game. The other candidates are Trevon Bluiett (77 Points), Mikal Bridges (65 Points), Mo Bamba (62 Points), and Devonte' Graham (41 Points) out of Kansas.

Game Picks: The First Round of the NCAA Tournament is always heavily favored by the higher seeds, and our predictions were no different. Some notable selections made by Chinedum Wejinya (33-27, 11-9) included a trio of upsets: Texas over Nevada, Alabama over Virginia Tech, and Butler over Arkansas. Max Heningburg (34-26, 12-8) was a little more daring, selecting New Mexico State over Clemson and Loyola-Chicago over Miami, as well as taking the Longhorns and Crimson Tide. Charles Post (39-21, 11-8) has a pair of 10 seeds advancing, taking Texas and Providence to eliminate Nevada and Texas A&M, respectively. Elsewhere, we all have Houston, Kentucky, Ohio State, and Wichita State moving on, despite a lot of talk about upsets by the likes of San Diego State, Davidson, and others. In some of the eight vs. nine matchups, we're all riding with Seton Hall, Missouri, and Alabama. As for Trae Young and Oklahoma, all three of us are taking Rhode Island to end the Sooners' season, which could be the final game for Young in an Oklahoma uniform. And lastly, the potential Player of the Year, DeAndre Ayton, is projected to lead his team to a victory over Buffalo.

Final Four Picks (March 15, 2018):