CFB: Week 13 Predictions
- Chas Post
- Nov 25, 2016
- 7 min read

Week 12 was the calm before the storm, at least that's what we are hoping, because there was not a lot of chaos this past weekend, however, there were some great games; No. 25 Houston upset No. 5 Louisville, No. 10 Colorado held on against No. 15 Washington State, No. 8 Oklahoma blew past No. 13 West Virginia, and No. 20 Florida stopped No. 21 LSU on fourth-and-goal as time expired.
Week 13, better known as Rivalry Week is finally here and it won't disappoint. The slate, the storylines, and playoff ramifications are at every corner. This weekend is of course headlined by The Game between No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan. However, the Iron Bowl between No. 1 Alabama and No. 14 Auburn, Apple Cup between No. 5 Washington and No. 22 Washington State, and 2/3 of the Florida Cup between No. 13 Florida and No. 15 Florida State are not to be taken lightly. I, along with Blake Stoll, will produce rankings, five questions and answers, game predictions, and Heisman watch.
But first, here is the CFP Committee's fresh rankings:
Current CFP Field:
No. 1 Alabama (11-0, 7-0)
No. 2 Ohio State (10-1, 7-1)
No. 3 Michigan (10-1, 7-1)
No. 4 Clemson (10-1, 7-1)
Outside, Looking In:
No. 5 Washington (10-1, 7-1)
No. 6 Wisconsin (9-2, 6-2)
No. 7 Penn State (9-2, 6-2)
No. 8 Oklahoma (9-2, 8-0)
Others With A Chance:
No. 9 Colorado (9-2, 7-1)
No. 10 Oklahoma State (9-2, 6-1)
NY6 Bowls, If The Season Ended Today:
Peach (CFP): No. 1 Alabama (11-0) vs. No. 4 Clemson (10-1)
Fiesta (CFP): No. 2 Ohio State (10-1) vs. No. 3 Michigan (10-1)
Rose: No. 5 Washington (10-1) vs. No. 6 Wisconsin (10-1)
Sugar: No. 7 Oklahoma (9-2) vs. No. 12 Florida (8-2)
Cotton: No. 9 Colorado (9-2) vs. No. 20 Boise State (10-1)
Orange: No. 8 Penn State (9-2) vs. No. 11 Louisville (9-2)
Composite Rankings:
1. Alabama (11-0)
2. Ohio State (10-1)
3. Michigan (10-1)
4. Clemson (10-1)
5. Washington (10-1)
6. Wisconsin (9-2)
7. Penn State (9-2)
8. Oklahoma (9-2)
9. Colorado (9-2)
10. Oklahoma State (9-2)
11. USC (8-3)
12. Louisville (9-2)
13. Florida (8-2)
14. Auburn (8-3)
15. Florida State (8-3)
16. Nebraska (9-2)
17. Western Michigan (11-0)
18. Houston (9-2)
19. Boise State (10-1)
20. West Virginia (9-2)
21. Virginia Tech (8-3)
22. Washington State (8-3)
23. Texas A&M (8-3)
24. Stanford (8-3)
25. Tennessee (8-3)
Just Missed the Cut:
26. Utah (8-3)
27. North Carolina (8-3)
28. Minnesota (8-3)
29. LSU (7-4)
30. Kansas State (6-4)
Who wins The Game between Michigan and Ohio State?
Post: I said back in August that the Wolverines could not go into the Horseshoe and defeat Ohio State. So give me the Buckeyes (ESPN FPI 58.8 percent chance to win) and their great signal caller J.T. Barrett (2,304 yards, 24 touchdowns). With Wilton Speight either out all together or not 100 percent, De'Veon Smith (750 yards, 10 touchdowns) must play a huge role, as he did against the Hoosiers. I just trust Barrett, home-field advantage, and Urban Meyer a little bit more. It should be a close one though as both, Ohio State (43.8 PPG) and Michigan (42.3 PPG), will be fighting for their playoff lives.
Stoll: The Game. The Game. The Game. The Game is all that anyone has been talking about over the past few weeks. In the most anticipated meeting of No. 2 Ohio State and No. 3 Michigan in the last decade, I think we will have an instant classic. This is a really tough call to make. Michigan comes in with the best defense in the country and Ohio State seems to be untouchable as well. The Buckeyes have two upper hands in this one; they play at home, and Michigan quarterback Wilton Speight may not play with a shoulder injury. Last week against Indiana, John O’Korn filled in for him in his first start since losing the starting job at Houston in 2014. He looked shaky at best in the first half and only had a few attempts in the second half. The ground game is huge, but the Wolverines will need to make peace with their passing game if they want to win this one. This game is more than just bragging rights in the best rivalry in all of sports, but it is what seems to be, for the winner, a spot in the College Football Playoff. Ohio State wins a close game decided late in the fourth quarter.
Who clinches PAC-12 title berth; Washington or Washington State?
Post: This game is the one I am struggling with the most. No. 5 Washington is the better team, but a road game against a ranked team who is also your biggest rival just smells like a loss. I'll take No. 22 Washington State, with about 10 percent confidence. Luke Falk (3,935 yards, 36 touchdowns) is the main reason I think the Cougars have a fighter's chance. He and Gabe Marks (755 yards, 12 touchdowns) are one of the most dynamic QB-WR tandems in the country. However, Washington has one of their own in Jake Browning (2,870 yards, 37 touchdowns) and John Ross (991 yards, 15 touchdowns). I'll take Mike Leach's crew (4-1 at home) in a one-possession game.
Stoll: I believe that No. 5 Washington will win a hard fought battle against rival No. 22 Washington State. The Huskies began the season 9-0, and looked seemingly untouchable just like Michigan. They were upset in week 11 by No. 11 USC, when Clemson and Michigan also lost. Last week Washington found their groove again in a rout of Arizona State but this week’s task will be a bit tougher. Washington State has an outstanding pass game, while Washington’s offense is more balanced with ability on the ground and in the air. The Huskies will come out on top in a two possession game. They will face Colorado, if they beat Utah, or USC in the PAC-12 title game.
Can Wisconsin defeat Minnesota and win the Big Ten West division?
Post: Yes. I firmly believe No. 6 Wisconsin (ESPN FPI 85.6 percent chance to win) is the team most apt to slide into the backend of the College Football Playoff, and because of that, they will continue to muscle their way past opponents. Corey Clement (1,040 yards, 11 touchdowns) is looking as good as ever, as is the defense (allows 13.4 points and 292.5 yards per game), and it will carry them to a win. Not to say the Golden Gophers aren't a solid team (allows 22.2 points per game), in fact they are one of the quietest 8-3 teams, but a victory in Camp Randall is easier said than done.
Stoll: Minnesota isn't a bad team, sitting at 8-3, but they do not stand a chance against No. 6 Wisconsin. The Badgers come into this matchup at 9-2, with their losses coming to Michigan and Ohio State. It's a safe bet that Wisconsin will roll past Minnesota to move to the Big Ten Championship game where they will have the winner of Michigan vs. Ohio State, or Penn State.
Which Heisman candidate will step up during Rivalry Week?
Post: I have a few that I believe have shots at making statements. Lamar Jackson (282. 6 yards per game) against a bad defensive Kentucky team (allows 428.5 yards per game). D'Onta Foreman (186.3 yards per game) at home versus TCU (allows 166.8 yards per game) in what will likely be Charlie Strong's last home game at Texas. And the winner of Michigan and Ohio State will likely have a strong Heisman contender step up between J.T. Barrett and Jabrill Peppers (play at 12:00 noon on Saturday). Watch for Jackson to produce one more highlight tape en route to winning the stiff-arm.
Stoll: The most notable candidates at this point are Lamar Jackson (QB, Louisville), Deshaun Watson (QB, Clemson), and Donnel Pumphrey (RB, San Diego State). These players will face Kentucky, South Carolina, and Colorado State, respectively. All of these matchups favor these Heisman hopefuls but I think Lamar Jackson will put up huge numbers against Kentucky. Watson and Pumphrey will also have big games, but Jackson’s numbers will mean more as he has struggled a bit as of late.
What ranked teams go down in the last week of the regular season?
Post: I already mentioned I think No. 3 Michigan will go down to No. 2 Ohio State and No. 5 Washington will lose at No. 22 Washington State. I also believe No. 13 Florida gets embarrassed against No. 15 Florida State, No. 16 Nebraska loses a rivalry game against a hungry Iowa squad, and No. 23 Texas A&M losses at home against LSU without Trevor Knight. Also, watch out for No. 17 Western Michigan to possibly have trouble with Toledo. A berth in the MAC title game is on the line, and the Rockets are looking for revenge from a loss last year against the Broncos in a similar scenario.
Stoll: The stage is College Football. The setting is Rivalry Week. Anything can happen in college football as we witnessed in Week 11, but this isn't just another week. It's rivalry week, a week where every player on every team plays 10-times harder. I believe this week we will have a plethora of ranked teams fall. To list a few potential upsets; Memphis over No. 18 Houston, Air Force over No. 19 Boise State, Iowa over No. 16 Nebraska, and No. 17 Western Michigan will have their hands full with Toledo. We also have a number of ranked matchups. No. 13 Florida at No. 15 Florida State, No. 5 Washington at No. 22 Washington State, No. 14 Auburn at No. 1 Alabama, and none bigger than No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State.
Week 13 Predictions:
LSU 24, No. 23 Texas A&M 21.
No. 5 Washington 27, No. 22 Washington State 34.
No. 19 Boise State, Air Force 20.
No. 16 Nebraska 14, Iowa 17.
Minnesota 17, No. 6 Wisconsin 31.
No. 3 Michigan 23, No. 2 Ohio State 27.
No. 14 Auburn 13, No. 1 Alabama 21.
South Carolina 13, No. 4 Clemson 35.
Utah 14, No. 9 Colorado 28.
No. 13 Florida 10, No. 15 Florida State 27.
Week 12 Record: 8-2.
Overall Record: 90-30.
Read my original article; Predicting the 2016-17 College Football Playoff Teams.
No. 1 Alabama (11-0, 7-0)
No. 2 Florida State (8-3, 5-3)
No. 3 Ohio State (10-1, 7-1)
No. 4 Clemson (10-1, 7-1)
Preseason CFP Picks:

Heisman Standings:
1. Lamar Jackson (Louisville QB) -- 3,109 Yards, 28 TDs.
2. Deshaun Watson (Clemson QB) -- 3,279 Yards, 28 TDs.
3. D'Onta Foreman (Texas RB) -- 1,863 Yards, 15 TDs.
4. Baker Mayfield (Oklahoma QB) -- 3,381 Yards, 35 TDs.
5. J.T. Barrett (Ohio State QB) -- 2,304 Yards, 24 TDs.
Heisman Update:
No. 1 Lamar Jackson remains in the top spot for the 12th week, but his grip continues to loosen just slightly. He only passed for 211 yards and one touchdown in a loss at Houston. However, No. 2 Deshaun Watson could not take full advantage, tossing for 202 yards and a score in a win at Wake Forest. D'Onta Foreman moves up one spot to No. 3 after a 250-yard, two touchdown performance at Kansas. Texas is a mediocre team but Foreman has been incredible this season. No. 4 Baker Mayfield is a new addition, replacing Jalen Hurts, who struggled early against Chattanooga and only finished with 136 yards. On the other end, Mayfield was huge in an Oklahoma victory against West Virginia. No. 5 J.T. Barrett slides back from No. 3 after throwing for only 86 yards and a touchdown at Michigan State, but his team was able to get the much needed win, which is of course the most important thing.
Photo Credit: UniWatch.com.
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