CFB: Week 12 Predictions

Week 11 was one of the craziest days in college football history, in fact we have not seen something like it since 1985; No. 2 Clemson was shocked 43-42 by Pittsburgh, No. 3 Michigan couldn't get it going in a 14-13 loss at Iowa, and No. 4 Washington suffered its first loss of the season 26-13 to USC.

Week 12 is the prelude to Rivalry Week. There are four ranked-vs.-ranked matchups including teams from five different conferences, all looking to make one last impression before Rivalry Week, and three of those eight teams are still in the running for the College Football Playoff. Blake Stoll and I will produce a Composite Top 25 and burning questions, and I will offer some Week 12 predictions to go along with my current Heisman standings.

Speaking of the CFP, here is the Committee's most recent rankings:

Current CFP Field:

1. Alabama (10-0, 7-0)

2. Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)

3. Michigan (9-1, 6-1)

4. Clemson (9-1, 6-1)

Outside, Looking In:

5. Louisville (9-1, 7-1)

6. Washington (9-1, 6-1)

7. Wisconsin (8-2, 5-2)

8. Penn State (8-2, 5-2)

Others With A Chance:

9. Oklahoma (8-2, 7-0)

10. Colorado (8-2, 6-1)

11. Oklahoma State (8-2, 6-1)

12. Utah (8-2, 6-2)

NY6 Bowls, If The Season Ended Today:

Peach (CFP): No. 1 Alabama (10-0) vs. No. 4 Clemson (9-1)

Fiesta (CFP): No. 2 Ohio State (9-1) vs. No. 3 Michigan (9-1)

Rose: No. 6 Washington (9-1) vs. No. 7 Wisconsin (8-2)

Sugar: No. 9 Oklahoma (8-2) vs. No. 16 LSU (6-3)

Cotton: No. 21 Western Michigan (10-0) vs. No. 10 Colorado (8-2)

Orange: No. 5 Louisville (9-1) vs. No. 8 Penn State (8-2)

Composite Rankings:

1. Alabama (10-0)

2. Ohio State (9-1)

3. Michigan (9-1)

4. Clemson (9-1)

5. Louisville (9-1)

6. Washington (9-1)

7. Wisconsin (8-2)

8. Oklahoma (8-2)

9. Penn State (8-2)

10. Colorado (8-2)

11. Utah (8-2)

12. Oklahoma State (8-2)

13. West Virginia (8-1)

14. USC (7-3)

15. Washington State (8-2)

16. Florida State (7-3)

17. Western Michigan (10-0)

18. Nebraska (8-2)

19. Auburn (7-3)

20. Florida (7-2)

21. LSU (6-3)

22. Boise State (9-1)

23. Texas A&M (7-3)

24. Virginia Tech (7-3)

25. Houston (8-2)

Just Missed the Cut:

26. Stanford (7-3)

27. Tennessee (7-3)

28. North Carolina (7-3)

29. Minnesota (7-3)

30. Baylor (6-3)

Can No. 25 Houston pull of another upset against No. 5 Louisville?

Post: I am actually a huge believer in this No. 25 Houston team, even though they lost twice this season. For most teams, losing back-to-back conference games on the road would not be that big of a deal, but because of Houston's expectations, they slid far in the rankings. The Cougars have a huge chance to save their season this Thursday against No. 5 Louisville. Greg Ward Jr. (2,608 yards, 16 touchdowns) must have a huge game just to offset Lamar Jackson (2,898 yards, 27 touchdowns), but the Houston defense (allows 92.8 rushing yards per game) is going to be the x-factor. If Ed Oliver (2016-17 No. 2 Recruit) and the rest of the defensive line can contain Jackson and Co., then Tom Herman (wins vs. No. 9 Florida State and No. 3 Oklahoma) has the chance at pulling off yet another big time upset. I'll take the Cougs in a tight one.

Stoll: No. 25 Houston began the season rolling, and found themselves in the top-10. After starting 5-0, the Cougars lost two road games (at Navy, at SMU). They have won two straight since and host No. 5 Louisville this week. Louisville has been stellar all season long. Their only slip up comes to No. 4 Clemson and that game was decided in the fourth quarter. Heisman candidate Lamar Jackson is coming off a rough week, accounting for only one touchdown, so he’ll be hungry and go off for at least four against Houston in a win.

Who wins a sneaky good PAC-12 game; No. 15 Washington State or No. 10 Colorado?

Post: No. 15 Washington State. I have no doubt in my mind that Mike Leach's team is better, but the only reason I give Colorado a shot is them playing at home. I have extreme confidence in the Cougars' offense (44.3 points, 517.5 yards per game), led by Luke Falk (3,610 yards, 33 touchdowns). Don't get me wrong, No. 10 Colorado (35.2 points, 465.8 yards per game) can score with the best of them, but Washington State is too potent. I'll take the Cougs (again) in a high-scoring game out West.

Stoll: I like the No. 10 Buffaloes in this match up. Both teams are 8-2. No. 15 Washington State began the season with two straight losses to Eastern Washington and No. 22 Boise State, and Colorado losing at No. 4 Michigan and at No. 14 USC. Colorado has the edge in the backfield and that will hoist them to victory this week.

Will No. 4 Clemson, No. 3 Michigan, and No. 6 Washington bounce back after losses?

Post: Yes. I expect all three teams to return to their winning ways, defeating a trio of unranked opponents. No. 4 Clemson (92.5 percent chance to win according to ESPN's FPI) faces the toughest team in Wake Forest (6-4) on the road but with Deshaun Watson (3,077 yards, 27 touchdowns) and an angry defense, the Tigers should prevail. No. 3 Michigan (97.8 percent chance to win) is going to take their defeat to Iowa and turn it into a beat down of Indiana. Look for Deveon Smith (592 yards, 8 touchdowns) and the running game to play a big role as QB Wilton Speight is questionable with a collarbone injury. Lastly, No. 6 Washington (average 10.1 points more and allows 19.9 points less) will take care of business at home against the 5-5 Sun Devils.

Stoll: I think this is a simple yes. No. 4 Clemson remained consultant on offense, Deshaun Watson threw for a school-record 580 yards in the loss. This week their defense will find a groove once more and cruise past Wake Forest. No. 3 Michigan’s defense remained stellar but QB Wilton Speight just didn't have the protection to sit back and throw downfield like he has all season. The Wolverines were held to 98 yards rushing. Iowa exploited the o-line and that is what they will be working on in practice throughout the week. U of M will roll over Indiana this week. No. 6 Washington had the same problem as Michigan, just could not get their offense going. Jake Browning has an easy game this week against Arizona State and should regain confidence to stay in contention for the CFP.

Is No. 8 Oklahoma going to keep it rolling against No. 13 West Virginia?

Post: I believe so. No. 8 Oklahoma has been rolling since a 1-2 start (losses to No. 15 Houston and No. 2 Ohio State) and with Baker Mayfield (3,212 yards, 33 touchdowns) running the show, it'd be hard to see this team slowing down. Especially with how well the Mayfield-to-Dede Westbrook (1,254 yards, 14 touchdowns) connection has been. No. 13 West Virginia's defense (allows 20.6 points, 409.8 yards per game) is the best in the Big 12, but it won't be enough to contain Oklahoma's offense (44.2 points, 557.4 yards per game), which is playing like a videogame the last seven games.

Stoll: This is a tough call to make. No. 8 Oklahoma at No. 13 West Virginia. Both teams have high powered offenses, but there are differences. The Sooners have a stronger quarterback in Baker Mayfield but the Mountaineers have more depth in the backfield and out wide. I am going to say that West Virginia shuts down Mayfield’s go-to receivers and their balanced offense will give them the win in a close game.

What is your prediction for the CFP Committee's final standings?

Post: Well, obviously, give me No. 1 ALABAMA (projected 13-0). Nick Saban has this team playing arguably better than it ever has in his tenure, and that is saying something. Even if they were to slip up against Auburn or in the SEC title game against Tennessee (or Florida), give me the Tide. I'll also take No. 4 CLEMSON (12-1). Even though they just lost to Pittsburgh at home, they would need to lose to Wake Forest to miss out on the ACC title game. If the Tigers can beat Wake Forest, South Carolina, and Virginia Tech in the ACC championship, they will be in. Thirdly, I'll take No. 2 OHIO STATE (11-1). The Buckeyes have Michigan State and Michigan left and the winner of "The Game" is a shoe in for the CFP, and I have said since August 26 that the Wolverines won't win in Columbus. Even without the Big Ten championship, I expect Ohio State to make the Final Four. Lastly, which is where it really gets difficult, I would be deciding between Louisville, Washington, Wisconsin, Penn State, Oklahoma, and Colorado. I predicted both Louisville and Colorado to go down this weekend so take them out. Washington still has a trip to Washington State and a PAC-12 title game, both of which could end up in a loss; take them out. Oklahoma is a two-loss team, with a bad defense, only one ranked win (TCU), and no conference championship game. Get rid of them. That leaves Wisconsin and Penn State. Both of who should meet in the Big Ten championship game unless the Badgers or Nittany Lions lose to an unranked foe in the last two weeks. I'll take No. 7 WISCONSIN (11-2) in the final spot.

Stoll: I believe No. 1 ALABAMA is a lock for the No. 1 seed because they have been dominant all season long with no slip ups. They have had only one close game early on in the season, holding off a comeback bid against Ole Miss. They’ve rolled through the rest of the SEC and it looks like they will face Florida in the conference title game and the Gators don’t stand a chance. Michigan and Ohio State both have one loss. Michigan’s coming last week on a field goal as time expired and the Buckeyes’ was a one possession game against Penn State. It seems as if they will enter the final game of the season at 10-1. The Game takes place in Columbus, so Ohio State has a bit of an edge there. It is going to be one of the toughest games in the rivalry in the past decade and too close to call. The winner of that game will (possibly) go to the B1G championship game and face what looks to be Wisconsin, whom they have both beaten. I think the winner of this game will be a lock for the No. 2 seed. Give me No. 3 MICHIGAN. Clemson’s only slip up comes to Pitt on a field goal with :06 remaining and it seems as if they will face Virginia Tech in the ACC title game. The Tigers should have no problem getting there and holding off the Hokies behind Deshaun Watson. No. 4 CLEMSON will be the No. 3 seed. This is where is gets tricky. There are a number of teams that could take the No. 4 seed but I’m going out on a limb by taking No. 10 COLORADO. Should they win out against No. 15 Washington State and No. 11 Utah, they will face No. 6 Washington in the PAC-12 championship game. Their two losses come to No. 3 Michigan in Ann Arbor and a four-point game at No. 14 USC. Since the losses, the Buffaloes have been rolling and I believe they have a shot at taking down the Huskies of Washington to claim the No. 4 seed.

Week 12 Predictions:

No. 5 Louisville 23, No. 25 Houston 30.

No 15 Washington State 28, No. 10 Colorado 21.

No. 4 Clemson 33, Wake Forest 13.

No. 8 Oklahoma 42, No. 13 West Virginia 28.

No. 12 Oklahoma State 28, TCU 20.

Maryland 10, No. 18 Nebraska 21.

No. 20 Florida 13, No. 21 LSU 28.

The Citadel 17, North Carolina 33.

Indiana 10, No. 3 Michigan 63.

Arizona State 14, No. 6 Washington 42.

Week 11 Record: 5-5.

Overall Record: 82-28.

Read my original article; Predicting the 2016-17 College Football Playoff Teams.

No. 1 Alabama (10-0, 7-0)

No. 2 Florida State (7-3, 4-3)

No. 3 Ohio State (9-1, 6-1)

No. 4 Clemson (9-1, 6-1)

Heisman Standings:

1. Lamar Jackson (Louisville QB) -- 2,898 Yards, 27 TDs.

2. Deshaun Watson (Clemson QB) -- 3,077 Yards, 27 TDs.

3. J.T. Barrett (Ohio State QB) -- 2,218 Yards, 23 TDs.

4. D'Onta Foreman (Texas RB) -- 1,613 Yards, 13 TDs.

5. Jalen Hurts (Alabama QB) -- 2,032 Yards, 16 TDs.

Heisman Update: No. 1 Lamar Jackson remained atop the leaderboard but his stranglehold on the top spot is no lessening. He only threw for 145 yards and one touchdown in against Wake Forest, in which the Cardinals trailed 12-0 at halftime. No. 2 Deshaun Watson threw for a school-record 580 yards but the Tigers lost against Pittsburgh. If Clemson could have won that game, Watson may have vaulted to the top rank. J.T. Barrett returns to these rankings at No. 3 after being left out for a month. He passed for 253 yards and 2 touchdowns in a 62-3 win at Maryland. D'Onta Foreman raised one spot to No. 4, even after his Texas Longhorns lost against West Virginia. Foreman's steak of 100+ yards per game is up to 11 straight, tying an Earl Campbell school-record. If he can keep it up, Foreman will be the first Longhorn in New York since Colt McCoy. No. 5 Jalen Hurts took advantage of Jake Browning's and Jabrill Peppers' struggles in Week 11. 357 yards passing and 4 touchdowns against Mississippi State was enough to revisit the thought of Hurts as a Heisman candidate.

Photo Credit: Houston Chronicle.