CFB: Week 11 Predictions
Week 10 was the first weekend following the initial release of the College Football Playoff Committee's Top 25, and it did not disappoint; No. 1 Alabama out-toughed No. 13 LSU, No. 2 Clemson wiped the floor with Syracuse, No. 3 Michigan muscled past Maryland, No. 4 Texas A&M was shocked by Mississippi State, No. 5 Washington ran all over California, and No. 6 Ohio State put a beatdown on No. 10 Nebraska.
Week 11 has a tough task of following up such an eventful past week, but with a fresh new CFP Rankings, and more at stake than ever, Week 11 should be a roller coaster. Blake Stoll and I will be doing our normal thing; previewing the upcoming Saturday with a Top 25 of our own, questions, and my own predictions and Heisman update.
Composite Rankings:
1. Alabama (9-0)
2. Clemson (9-0)
3. Michigan (9-0)
4. Washington (9-0)
5. Ohio State (8-1)
6. Louisville (8-1)
7. Wisconsin (7-2)
8. Auburn (7-2)
9. Oklahoma (7-2)
10. Penn State (7-2)
11. West Virginia (7-1)
12. Colorado (7-2)
13. Texas A&M (7-2)
14. Oklahoma State (7-2)
15. Utah (7-2)
16. Virginia Tech (7-2)
17. North Carolina (7-2)
18. Nebraska (7-2)
19. Florida State (6-3)
20. Florida (6-2)
21. LSU (5-3)
22. Western Michigan (9-0)
23. Boise State (8-1)
24. Washington State (7-2)
25. Houston (7-2)
Just Missed the Cut:
26. Minnesota (7-2)
27. Baylor (6-2)
28. Arkansas (6-3)
29. Stanford (6-3)
30. Wake Forest (6-3)
Can LSU recover from Alabama loss, on the road at Arkansas?
Post: Of course. Yes, No. 21 LSU struggled offensively against No. 1 Alabama last weekend, losing 10-0, but there are a handful of silver linings from that loss. 1) The Tigers looked like one of the best defenses in the country. 2) They hung with Alabama better than anyone else has in 2016. 3) Danny Etling took care of the ball. If LSU can play like they did against the Tide, then they will get a road victory. Leonard Fournette (705 yards, 5 touchdowns) must get going, because Austin Allen (2,291 yards, 19 touchdowns) is always ready for a shootout. But I trust LSU's defense (+11.7 point differential, allows 315.0 yards per game) more than an up and down Razorbacks squad (+1.9 point differential). LSU moves to 6-3.
Stoll: No. 21 LSU hosted the No. 1 team in the country in Alabama this past weekend and held them to 10 points. They just could not find the answer to the Tide’s overwhelming defense. This upcoming week, the Tigers travel to face Arkansas, who is coming off an impressive win over No. 20 Florida. Arkansas found their way to 30 points against Alabama a few weeks ago but gave up 49. If LSU can hold onto the defensive toughness they had against the Tide, they should have no problem against the Razorbacks. Once they get the offense rolling on an unsteady defense, LSU will win the game.
Will West Virginia be able to win at Texas?
Post: I'm actually liking this matchup for the Longhorns. Yes, No. 11 West Virginia has been dynamic, led by veteran quarterback Skyler Howard (2,293 yards, 16 touchdowns) but Texas' Foreman brothers have been incredible in back-to-back wins over Baylor and Texas Tech. D'Onta Foreman (1,446 yards, 13 touchdowns) is a legitimate Heisman candidate and his twin, Armanti Foreman (414 yards, 3 touchdowns) has solidified himself as a deep ball threat. I'll take a young and energetic Texas (37.0 points and 505.4 yards per game) team at home over West Virginia (33.3 points and 510.8 yards per game) in what is sure to be a shootout.
Stoll: Texas held off Texas Tech in a win last week as did No. 11 West Virginia against Kansas. Neither team has an offense that is a stranger to the end zone, but as most Big 12 games are decided, this game will be won by defensive stops in the second half. I think the the Mountaineers defense has the edge in this matchup and will come out on top, but watch out for a close game entering the fourth quarter.
How does Ohio State respond following win over Nebraska, at Maryland?
Post: After the Buckeyes' 62-3 thrashing of No. 18 Nebraska, it seemed like the hail storm that had hit Columbus a few weeks ago was finally coming to an end. The offense looked explosive again and the defense dominated per usual. I don't see a team filled with studs J.T. Barrett (1,965 yards, 21 touchdowns), Mike Weber (842 yards, 7 touchdowns), and Curtis Samuel (676 yards, 5 touchdowns) losing to Maryland. The Buckeyes average more points (44.8-29.3) and give up less (13.8-27.2) which is a formula that still has not failed me this season.
Stoll: No. 5 Ohio State travels to face Maryland, following a rout of No. 18 Nebraska. The Buckeyes won 62-3, similar to the 59-3 win Michigan had over Maryland. Maryland may have a chip on their shoulder this week in front of their home crowd after the blowout loss, but to put it as simple as I can; Ohio State will shut down the Terrapins and win big.
Is there any way imaginable that Lamar Jackson does not win the Heisman?
Post: It's possible, but at this point, unless Jackson implodes, gets injured, or his team loses three straight games to end the season; he is going to be the 2016 Heisman Trophy winner. Lamar Jackson (2,753 yards, 26 touchdowns) has had one of the best all-around seasons in college football history, with 3-5 games left. Deshaun Watson (2,494 yards, 24 touchdowns), Jake Browning (2,273 yards, 24 touchdowns), and Jabrill Peppers (49 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 4 touchdowns) are right on his trail, but I fully expect Louisville's sophomore quarterback to take home the stiff-arm trophy in mid-December.
Stoll: Quite frankly, no. Lamar Jackson has been impressive, to say the least, since week one. In games that he was supposed to show out and in top-10 matchups, Jackson has proved himself to be the Heisman frontrunner. Lamar Jackson boasts 3,934 total yards and 45 total touchdowns, with 19 of 45 said touchdowns coming on the ground. There is no player or defense as a whole with an answer to his uncanny talent. If Louisville can somehow find a way back into the playoff picture, it will be interesting to see how Jackson will showcase his abilities on that level.
If Michigan and Ohio State finish 11-1, who deserves the College Football Playoff spot?
Post: Well, for both teams to finish 11-1 it would mean No. 3 Michigan and No. 6 Ohio State win-out until their matchup on Thanksgiving weekend, which would have to end in a Buckeyes victory. That would send Ohio State to the Big Ten Championship game. For arguments sake, let's say they beat No. 8 Wisconsin and sit at 12-1. Michigan, a non-conference-champion would likely be No. 5 or No. 6. If any of the other teams in front of them (projected to be Alabama, Clemson, Washington) lose in their conference title game, either Michigan or Louisville would get the final spot. It would be a hard option because both would be 11-1, their lone loss being on the road at a top-5 opponent, with a Heisman candidate, but without a conference title. I would expect the committee to select Michigan, but either choice would be understandable. In short; If Ohio State and Michigan finish with one-loss, the Buckeyes would have the upper-hand but the Wolverines' playoffs hopes would not be dead.
Stoll: No. 3 Michigan (9-0) looks as if they will coast into Columbus, in the annual matchup, to face No. 5 Ohio State (8-1). This game will be the most anticipated meeting of these two teams in the past decade. This game will hold more than just bragging rights of the biggest rivalry in college football, but playoff hopes are in the midst. Ohio State’s single loss comes to Penn State who may find themselves in the top-10, which makes it not look too bad. I believe this matchup will be a hard fought battle for the entirety of four quarters. If Michigan wins in this scenario; it’s their spot. But if Ohio State comes out on top in a close one, we could potentially see both teams find the playoff (if another team slips up). If it is a one sided game, I think the winner will get the spot outright. I am excited to see how this plays out as you should be too.
Week 11 Predictions:
Baylor 28, No. 9 Oklahoma 42.
No. 20 LSU 23, Arkansas 17.
No. 8 Auburn 41, Georgia 21.
No. 11 West Virginia 24, Texas 30.
No. 5 Ohio State 38, Maryland 17.
Pittsburgh 17, No. 2 Clemson 31.
Georgia Tech 21, No. 16 Virginia Tech 37.
Wake Forest 13, No. 6 Louisville 42.
No. 3 Michigan 35, Iowa 24.
California 30, No. 23 Washington State 38.
Week 10 Record: 8-2.
Overall Record: 77-23.
Read my original article; Predicting the 2017 College Football Playoff Teams.
No. 1 Alabama (9-0, 6-0)
No. 2 Florida State (6-3, 3-3)
No. 3 Ohio State (8-1, 5-1)
No. 4 Clemson (9-0, 6-0)
Heisman Standings:
1. Lamar Jackson (Louisville QB) -- 2,753 Yards & 26 TDs.
2. Deshaun Watson (Clemson QB) -- 2,494 Yards & 24 TDs.
3. Jake Browning (Washington QB) - 2,273Yards & 34 TDs.
4. Jabrill Peppers (Michigan LB) -- 49 Tackles & 3.5 Sacks.
5. D'Onta Foreman (Texas RB) -- 1,446 Yards & 13 TDs.
Heisman Update: No. 1 Lamar Jackson stayed atop the standings with yet another dominant performance, this one in a route of Boston College. Jackson threw for 300+ yards and four touchdowns. No. 2 Deshaun Watson only played the first half in a 50-point-shutout of Syracuse. He threw for 194 yards and 2 touchdowns, but only playing one half makes it all the more difficult to catch Jackson. It seems clear that Watson and Co. are focusing on the CFP instead of Heisman. No. 3 and No. 4, Jake Browning and Jabrill Peppers respectively, swapped this week because of Browning's 6-touchdown performance on the road at California. Peppers had another solid game, going for 5 tackles and 19 yards, but to win this award he must have a big game against No. 5 Ohio State in two weeks. Speaking of big games, No. 5 D'Onta Foreman is (somehow) still flying under-the-radar. He thrashed Texas Tech for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground last week. If he can continue his hot streak against No. 16 West Virginia, he may start to get more national notice.
Photo Credit: Heavy.com.
