CFB: 2015 CFP Preview
New Years Eve will host the two biggest games of the season, thus far. #1 Clemson will face #4 Oklahoma who they ran over last season. Then in primetime, #2 Alabama will clash with #3 Michigan State. There are dozens of storylines and hundreds of numbers and statistics that will all come together on the biggest stage. In just a matter of days, you will be able to sit back and watch the four teams fight for a spot in the national championship game. However, before we get there, we must preview the matchups.
No. 1 Clemson (13-0) vs No. 4 Oklahoma (11-1)
The obvious talking point to start with this game would be what happened last season. Even though both teams are much different from who they were just over a year ago, it has to be said: Clemson beat Oklahoma 40-6. Now I know what you are thinking, Oklahoma was playing with Trevor Knight at quarterback, No Joe Mixon, less experience on both sides of the ball, etc. Yes, that is 100% correct. Everyone has talked about how different the Sooners are from that 8-5 team. Baker Mayfield has emerged as a top five quarterback in the country, the backfield of Perine and Mixon are nearly unstoppable, a receiving group led by Sterling Shepard, and a defense that is anchored by the big and powerful Eric Striker. This OU team is far from who they were when they suffered a beatdown to the Tigers, but something people are forgetting is that Clemson is not the same team either. Deshaun Watson did not play in that game (torn ACL), Shaq Lawson who is a beast on the defensive front is hard to contain let alone stop, Wayne Gallman went from an average running back to one of the best in the ACC, and receivers like Artavis Scott have improved mightily during the last 12 months. Both teams are so much different from who they were when they faced off last season, so much better.
Quarterback matchup: This is one of the best matchups within a game, of the bowl season. Both signal callers were Heisman candidates through November and each of them are able to move the ball through the air and on the ground. While Deshaun Watson leads by a wide margin in rushing yards they are close in passing yardage, efficiency, and touchdowns-to-interceptions. Watson has 3,512 passing yards, 30 touchdowns, and 11 picks to Mayfield's 3,389 yards, 35 scores, and 5 interceptions. Watson's completion percentage is just barely higher (69.4% to Baker Mayfield's 68.6%). Both teams will need their leaders to step up and shine bright in Florida, come Thursday evening.
Running back matchup: Samaje Perine had a breakout Freshman year last season, while Clemson's Wayne Gallman broke out this year. They both come in with extremely high yards per carry. Perine gets about 6.1 yards a pop to Gallman's 5.8. Gallman leads in the yardage category as his 1,332 beats out Perine's 1291. But Perine is able to stick it in the end zone more often, with five more rushing scores (15-10). Oklahoma may have the upper hand because of their second back. Joe Mixon can come in and change the pace for the Sooners which may be difficult to stop if you are Clemson.
Team Statistics - Clemson is the former, while Oklahoma is the latter.
Points per game: 38.5-45.8
Opponent's points per game: 20.2-20.8
Total yards per game: 510.6-542.9
Opponent's yards per game: 295.7-350.7
Prediction: Clemson 30, Oklahoma 24.
The Tigers will come away with the victory because I believe they are the best team in the country. They have shown that they stand up for the biggest games, beating Notre Dame, Florida State, and North Carolina. Oklahoma has struggled against running quarterbacks, which Clemson runs to perfection. Deshaun Watson will not have his best game but he will do enough to prevail. The defense will slow Mayfield and Perine just enough to secure a win. I think both teams will score early, while they both feel each other out but points will be hard to come by in the fourth quarter. It should be a great game, but Clemson will advance to the National Championship.
No. 2 Alabama vs (12-1) vs No. 3 Michigan State (12-1)
Nick Saban will face off against another one of his former assistants. Mark Dantonio has taken a team that was always in the middle of the pack in the Big 10, to a team that dominates annually. In the last three years, since Connor Cook took over at quarterback, Michigan State has won three bowl games. Including two major wins in the Rose and Cotton Bowl. Nick Saban is undefeated against his former assistants (8-0) when facing them at Alabama, but he has not faced a team like the Spartans. Both teams are very similar, they like to run the ball and hit you hard on the defensive side. It will not be a clash of styles like we see all the time in the postseason. But it will be a clash of champions when these teams meet in Texas at 8:00 Eastern.
Quarterback matchup: Two pro-style, senior quarterbacks will lead their teams later this week. Michigan State will send out Connor Cook who is one of the best quarterbacks in Spartan history. His 2,921 yards, 24 touchdowns, and five interceptions are all more impressive compared to his opponent's. Jake Coker is a senior but does not have the experience of Cook. He passed for 2,489 yards but only 17 scores and 8 picks. Passing is not the key to the game for either team, but Michigan State clearly has an advantage when the ball is in the air.
Running back matchup: This is where the tables turn. Michigan State will start LJ Scott who has emerged as a very solid back. His 691 yards and 11 touchdowns does not do him justice. He earned more and more playing time as the season progressed. He averages just about 5 yards per run. On the other side of the field, Alabama will start their Heisman winning running back Derrick Henry. His 339 rushes, at almost 6 yards per rush, comes to 1,986 yards on the ground, and 23 touchdowns. He was the best player in the nation, and will look to continue his record breaking season against Michigan State. The rushing attack will decide this game, along with the defenses.
Team Statistics - Alabama is the former, while Michigan State is the latter.
Points per game: 34.1-32.1
Opponent's points per game: 14.4-20.5
Total yards per game: 422.5-396.8
Opponent's yards per game: 258.2-342.9
Prediction: Michigan State 23, Alabama 21.
In a miniature upset, the Spartans will come away with the win. Mark Dantonio will have his team prepared and ready to stop Derrick Henry. Michigan State beat Ohio State, on the road, by shutting down the running game. JT Barrett and Ezekiel Elliott could not get anything going. Derrick Henry will get a few scores, but will be contained enough for MSU to grab the win. Connor Cook will make some plays through the air and LJ Scott will show up big in the backfield. Both teams will play similar styles but I think the Spartans will adjust better. If the defenses slow the running game, Michigan State can win by passing the ball, I am not so sure I can say the same about the Crimson Tide. It should be a great game but I think for the second year in a row, Alabama will be upset by the Big Ten champion in the CFP Semifinal.
Photo Credit: Saturday Blitz.
