CBB: Calculating Tournament Résumés
The NCAA Tournament begins next week and Selection Sunday is just four days away, which means it's the last time we're going to be discussing the bubble, prior to the 68 teams being announced. With all of the projections and brackets being released in late February and early March, there always seems to be a mixture of criteria. For this, we decided to take the most important aspects of a resume: Amount of wins, strength of schedule, RPI Top-50 wins, road victories, and RPI Top-100+ losses. We combined those variables into a numerical result to compare the 10 bubble teams fighting for the last five or six spots in the upcoming tournament.
1. Syracuse (20-12, 8-10, 408 Pts, Projected 10 Seed): The Orange have been on the bubble for three years in a row. In 2016, they turned it into an improbable Final Four berth. Last season, they weren't as lucky, and ended up in the NIT. Syracuse's fate still awaits them this season, and they helped themselves out a bit on Tuesday night with a 73-64 win over Wake Forest in the opening round of the ACC Tournament. Now they get a shot at No. 12 North Carolina. If the Orange can pull off the upset, they're in for sure. If they lose, it'll be a nervous Selection Sunday in New York, but they'd still have a solid chance of getting in.
•Strength of Schedule (11)
•RPI Top-50 Wins (5)
•Road Victories (4)
•RPI Top-100+ Losses (2)
2. Texas (18-13, 8-10, 399 Pts, Projected 10 Seed): The Longhorns have such a weird resume because it consists of no great wins, no bad losses, and a lot of overtime games. Texas has played in seven extra periods and have competed in arguably the best conference in the nation, the Big 12. But will their eight wins in conference be enough? It's looking like the 'Horns need one more win to feel comfortable going into the weekend, and that will have to come against Iowa State in the First Round of the Big 12 Tournament. Although the Cyclones aren't going to the tournament, it's important to avoid a bad loss for Texas.
•Strength of Schedule (17)
•RPI Top-50 Wins (6)
•Road Victories (4)
•RPI Top-100+ Losses (0)
3. Alabama (17-14, 8-10, 399 Pts, Projected 11 Seed): The Crimson Tide are a spot below the Longhorns because they lost when the two teams met earlier in the season. That could come back to bite Alabama. They still need to win a couple of games in the SEC Tournament to have a chance, but it's very possible since they've beaten each of the top three teams in the conference: Auburn, Tennessee, and Florida. If Avery Johnson's team can beat Texas A&M and Auburn, they should be able to grab an at-large berth, but anything short of that, and it's realistic that the 15-loss Crimson Tide will be in the NIT.
•Strength of Schedule (9)
•RPI Top-50 Wins (6)
•Road Victories (2)
•RPI Top-100+ Losses (3)
4. Louisville (19-12, 9-9, 393 Pts, Projected 11 Seed): The Cardinals needed one more win to get into the tournament and that should have (?) come last Thursday when they were playing host to No. 1 Virginia. Louisville led by four points with 0.9 seconds and somehow lost the game by one point. Now, the Cards are still looking for an additional marquee victory. They currently have three top-50 RPI wins and no bad losses, along with the 23rd ranked strength of schedule. After losing two consecutive games, Louisville faces a must-win in the ACC Tournament when they face Florida State. A loss and they're definitely missing out.
•Strength of Schedule (23)
•RPI Top-50 Wins (3)
•Road Victories (4)
•RPI Top-100+ Losses (0)
5. Providence (19-12, 10-8, 390 Pts, Projected 11 Seed): The Friars are becoming a tournament regular with Ed Cooley at the helm, and he has a chance to get them to March Madness again. Providence is on the bubble, obviously, but their destiny is quite simple at this point. They have the 24th ranked strength of schedule and four important wins: Xavier, Butler, Creighton, and Villanova. Two of those teams are currently ranked in the top five and have a chance to be No. 1 seeds in the tournament. With those impressive wins, all the Friars have to do is beat Creighton in their upcoming matchup and they're a lock.
•Strength of Schedule (24)
•RPI Top-50 Wins (4)
•Road Victories (4)
•RPI Top-100+ Losses (3)
6. Butler (19-12, 9-9, 385 Pts, Projected 12 Seed): The Bulldogs are going to make the tournament, but their seeding is impossible to gauge right now. Some suggest that they belong on the eight line, while it seems their resume more similarly compares to that of a double-digit seed. For now, we'll have them as a No. 12 seed, but any more wins, and Butler will climb an entire seed line. Their next game is going to be on Thursday night against Seton Hall in the Big East Tournament, and it could really help Butler's chances of making a deep run if they can improve their ranking. But if getting in is the simple goal, they should be able to do so.
•Strength of Schedule (31)
•RPI Top-50 Wins (5)
•Road Victories (3)
•RPI Top-100+ Losses (1)
7. Notre Dame (19-13, 8-10, 371 Pts, Projected NIT): The Fighting Irish absolutely had to defeat Pittsburgh in the First Round of the ACC Tournament, especially given the Panthers' 0-18 record in ACC play. Notre Dame did so, coming away with a 67-64 triumph. Not exactly in blowout fashion like they would have hoped, but they're now 2-1 since Bonzie Colson's return from injury. It still seems like the Irish are a bit away from the tournament because of losses to Ball State, Indiana, and Georgia Tech, but it's not impossible. In order to reach the Big Dance again, they must beat Virginia Tech tomorrow at the very least.
•Strength of Schedule (43)
•RPI Top-50 Wins (3)
•Road Victories (5)
•RPI Top-100+ Losses (3)
8. LSU (17-13, 8-10, 358 Pts, Projected NIT): The Tigers' most impressive win is over Michigan in the Maui Invitational, but it certainly isn't their only big time upset. They've also defeated the likes of Houston, Texas A&M, Arkansas, and Missouri. All of that equates to a 7-4 record against the RPI Top-50 which is very noteworthy. However, the young Tigers also lost to Stephen F. Austin on their home floor and Vanderbilt on the road. Not exactly helpful to their resume. Because of those slip-ups, it's important for LSU to make a run in the SEC Tournament. They'll face Mississippi State and then possibly Tennessee and Florida.
•Strength of Schedule (53)
•RPI Top-50 Wins (7)
•Road Victories (3)
•RPI Top-100+ Losses (2)
9. Utah (19-10, 11-7, 348 Pts, Projected NIT): The Utes have had a pretty good season, but they weren't favored to make the NCAA Tournament from the jump because they lost their best player, Kyle Kuzma, to the NBA where he is impressing for the Los Angeles Lakers. And since the Utes got off to a slow start and don't have a very good strength of schedule (67th), it's high unlikely that they'll find a way to make the tourney. Despite a solid 5-6 road record, Utah would have to look mighty impressive in the Pac-12 Tournament to impress the Committee enough to include them. It's more probably that the Utes are NIT-bound.
•Strength of Schedule (67)
•RPI Top-50 Wins (2)
•Road Victories (5)
•RPI Top-100+ Losses (1)
10. Oklahoma State (18-13, 8-10, 347 Pts, Projected NIT): The Cowboys are probably the most intriguing team on the bubble, and yet are the furthest away from reaching the NCAAs. The reason they are so far away from the pack is because of poor strength of schedule. It's no coincidence that Utah and Oklahoma State are virtually in the same position given that their SOS is in the 60-range. When you schedule teams like Charlotte, Oral Roberts, Houston Baptist, Austin Peay, and others, you're taking a big risk. Even with two wins over Kansas and a road upset at West Virginia, Oklahoma State needs two wins to have any chance.
•Strength of Schedule (68)
•RPI Top-50 Wins (7)
•Road Victories (3)
•RPI Top-100+ Losses (0)
Photo Credit: SEC Country.
